Market Report – April 2025

The freight sector faces a volatile operating environment shaped by global policy shifts, particularly the U.S. tariff announcements and alliance restructuring across key trade lanes.

Carriers and cargo owners are adapting to a series of unpredictable developments, including capacity fluctuations, regional realignments, and short-term volume surges triggered by front-loading ahead of new tariffs. Amid these challenges, the need for agile planning and the support provided by PSP Worldwide Logistics is more critical than ever.

Ocean Freight
Markets are delicately balanced as carriers manage excess post-CNY capacity alongside volatile demand patterns. Asia-Europe capacity is up significantly, creating downward pressure on rates despite strong utilisation. At the same time, the Red Sea diversions continue to consume global tonnage and contribute to reliability issues across networks.

In response to weaker U.S.-bound demand from China, carriers are reorganising services and blanking sailings, with Southeast Asia expected to pick up the slack during the U.S. tariff pause. As alliances like Gemini roll out, there’s cautious optimism about schedule reliability, but oversupply and geopolitical uncertainty will likely persist through Q2.

From 7 April to 12 May, there were almost no blank sailings on Asia–North America East Coast services. However, a major spike appeared for the week starting 5 May. By 8 April, 35% of the planned capacity for the week of 5 May had been blanked, rising sharply to 42% by 15 April — a week-on-week increase of 7 percentage points.

On Asia–North America West Coast services, the escalation began earlier. For the week starting 28 April, 13% of capacity had been blanked by 8 April, more than doubling to 28% by 15 April.

– Asia-Europe capacity surged 27% YoY, softening spot rates
– Gemini alliance reports 94% origin reliability; broader effects mid-year
– Red Sea diversions still absorbing 10–12% of capacity
– Drewry WCI up 2% in April but 79% below pandemic highs

Air Freight

Worldwide air cargo tonnage rose by +6% year-on-year (YoY) in April, driven by a +10% YoY increase from Asia Pacific, as US importers moved early to adjust to the upcoming end of ‘de minimis’ exemptions on 2 May. This surge helped lift cumulative tonnage for the first four months of 2025 to +3% YoY.

All major origin regions recorded YoY growth in April, except Middle East & South Asia (MESA), which remained flat. Spot rates from China and Hong Kong to the US fell for a second consecutive week in late April reflecting the end of de minimis pre-loading, while rates from Asia to Europe have remained stable for several weeks.

With global average rates holding steady and jet fuel prices easing, airline margins have improved. But uncertainty persists. The end of de minimis exemptions is expected to cause a sharp drop in China–US demand, leading to possible freighter redeployments and renewed volatility in capacity and rates across multiple trade lanes.

– Baltic Index shows global rates up 2% YoY in March.
– Asia–Europe spot rates rose 13% YoY; Asia–US up 11%, but now softening.
– Dynamic load factors above 90% from Asia to Europe indicate continued strain.
– Tonnage from China and Hong Kong to the US declined for four consecutive weeks.

Road Freight
UK and European road freight markets remained steady through March, supported by abundant articulated capacity and resilient demand. A delayed Easter allowed shippers to secure transport at favourable rates before the seasonal uptick, while fuel cost easing helped offset high labour expenses.

The haulage index continues to rise, suggesting structural pressures remain, particularly around staffing and wage growth. Buyers are advised to act swiftly, as April and May are expected to bring tighter conditions and rate hikes across core lanes.

– TEG Road Transport Index reached 119.9 in March
– Articulated capacity up 31% YoY; demand rose 37% MoM
– Haulage index rose 1.5% MoM; courier segment flat
– Diesel/petrol prices down over 1% MoM, softening costs

In today’s dynamic logistics landscape, staying informed and agile is essential for building resilient, future-ready supply chains.

At PSP Worldwide, we provide data-driven insights and tailored solutions to help you navigate disruption, manage risk, and capitalise on new opportunities across air, sea, and road freight.

Get in touch to see how we can support your supply chain goals — EMAIL Colin Redman, Managing Director, today.