Air freight 2025: Growing demand and capacity shortages
The global air freight market in 2025 is set to experience sustained demand growth, driven by booming eCommerce and rising semiconductor shipments.
However, this growth comes against a backdrop of limited capacity expansion, regulatory scrutiny, and geopolitical risks, creating a challenging outlook for shippers. With cargo demand projected to rise faster than available capacity, airfreight rates are likely to remain elevated, keeping pressure on supply chains and transport budgets.
Sustained demand and shifting dynamics
Global air cargo demand is forecast to grow by 4-6% in 2025, supported by double-digit eCommerce growth and a rebound in traditional airfreight volumes, particularly on trade lanes originating in Asia. Semiconductors, critical for technologies like generative AI and advanced computer processing, are expected to drive demand from North Asia to Europe and North America.
Meanwhile, eCommerce volumes are set to grow by 14% annually until 2026, but increasing regulatory scrutiny could slow momentum. Platforms such as Shein and Temu face investigations and restrictions in the US and EU, raising concerns about tighter customs checks and possible trade barriers that could dampen growth.
While demand remains strong, global capacity constraints are expected to persist. With limited availability of wide-body freighters and reduced belly cargo options on key trade lanes, capacity is forecast to increase by just 3-4%. This imbalance will likely push load factors higher and maintain elevated spot rates, particularly on ex-Asia corridors where eCommerce demand is strongest.
Regional outlook
Asia: The region will remain the powerhouse of airfreight growth, with high demand for eCommerce and semiconductors driving activity. However, this will also lead to tight capacity and sustained high rates as carriers struggle to meet surging demand. Carriers may redeploy capacity from other markets to Asia, potentially straining supply in secondary regions.
Europe: European imports will continue to benefit from sea-air volumes caused by disruptions in ocean freight, particularly through the Red Sea. Transatlantic trade is expected to remain under pressure due to constrained freighter and belly-hold capacity, exacerbated by seasonal winter conditions.
Americas: The Americas will face ongoing capacity challenges. Congestion in South America and shifting trade routes will add further strain, while potential strikes at US east and Gulf Coast ports could trigger a modal shift to air freight, increasing demand and intensifying supply constraints.
Geopolitical and structural challenges
Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Red Sea and potential US tariff changes, will continue to shape air cargo flows. If trade barriers increase, particularly between the US and China, shippers may need to adjust routes and supply chain strategies to mitigate disruptions.
Structurally, limited capacity growth remains a challenge. New freighter deliveries are not keeping pace with rising demand, and reduced belly cargo options on passenger routes continue to constrain available space. Carriers are responding by expanding dedicated services and adjusting rates to capitalise on high-demand regions.
A tight market in 2025
While the exceptional 11% volume growth seen in 2024 is expected to slow, demand will still outpace supply in 2025. Shippers could face rising transport costs, particularly on Asia-originating corridors, where supply-demand imbalances will be most pronounced.
Rates will remain elevated but will vary significantly by region. Shippers moving goods on ex-Asia trade lanes will face far tighter capacity conditions compared to those operating on routes from South America or intra-regional corridors.
Navigating 2025’s challenges requires proactive planning and reliable partnerships. We secure long-term agreements with our primary carriers, ensuring guaranteed space and dependable solutions for all scenarios.
No matter your cargo type, size, or requirements, we offer highly competitive rate and service options tailored to your needs. For expert advice and personalised support, EMAIL Colin Redman today to perfect your air freight strategy.