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Freight market report – February 2023

Even as rates move back to pre-COVID levels and port congestion and delays clear away, our freight market reports and insights aid decision making and the avoidance of supply chain risk. 

The continued fall in global container freight rates that began last year, slowed in January on some routes, with capacity deployed on the two largest east west trades falling from 43.7% to 39.8% year on year.

Air freight volumes have been trending down since the first half of 2022 and the first half of 2023 continues to look bleak for air freight, with any hope of an early recovery receding, with no pre- Chinese New Year surge in demand from Asia.

Operating costs in road freight transport remain on the rise for 2023 and the stuttering economy will have an impact on volumes, at least in the first half of the year.


The traditional ex-Asia space and volume crunch around Chinese New Year was extremely muted and capacity remained higher than previous years, so we expect blank sailings to continue.

In the month up to the middle of January, 14% of all ex-Asia sailings were cancelled, of which 53% were trans-Pacific sailings, followed 24% on the Asia-Europe lane and 23% on the trans-Atlantic.

Maersk’s 2022 Q4 volumes were down 14% on 2021 and it announced the suspension of its TP20 transpacific loop just after news broke of their impending split with MSC and the end of the 2M alliance.

• Rates back under pressure post-CNY
• Carriers move vessels from Asia to more robust trade-lanes
• Expected rate drop from Europe to USEC yet to be seen in spot indices
• CMA announced a transatlantic PSS of $1000/teu


Worldwide inflation continued into 2023, with the PMI index remaining low, which means fewer export orders and demand ex-Asia stated muted, even in the run up to Chinese New Year (CNY), which would traditionally trigger a demand surge.

Most trade-lanes have enough capacity to support the demand and aggressive spot market are expected to continue.

Unforeseen circumstances could still disrupt the market, including COVID situation changing, employee shortages, industrial action, extreme weather events or new regulations. (See our EU Import Control System update).

• High interest rates and falling demand continue to impact
• China market has remained quiet post CNY
• Volumes from China to Europe have fallen by over 10%
• Post CNY rates to Europe fell by -10% and -5.4% to US


The UK and Europe is moving through the 1st quarter of 2023 with some optimism.

Fears of a gas shortage have failed to materialise, inflation may have peaked, supply chains are stabilising, and the economy is proving to be more resilient than expected.

But challenges remain considerable and the prospects for growth are slender, with economic stagnation or a moderate contraction not ruled out.

European road freight is experiencing a relaxation in available capacity, but not freight rates and the next peak season, which could be as early as Easter will show if this shift to a more balanced ratio is here for the long- term.

• Steep improvement in capacity availability
• Border Force staff strike for 2nd time in February
• Government pushing for better truck stops and drive treatment
• Industry call for fuel duty cut to be extended

To discuss any of the issues highlighted here, or to discover the value that PSP Worldwide would bring to your supply chain please EMAIL our managing director, Colin Redman.

We continuously monitor the evolving logistics environment, to share breaking news and developments, so that you can make the informed decisions that will protect your supply chain.