Freight market report; October 2023

Normal(ish) operations continue at most Israeli sea freight terminals, but a backlog of vessels is growing and while some airlines have resumed services to Israel, the industry is still exercising caution and charter requests are becoming increasingly harder to fulfil.

The European Union’s surprise decision to end container shipping lines’ Consortia Block Exemption Regulation (CBER) next April and imposing carbon taxes on them from January, mean the lines already have a challenging 2024.

Four months before CBER comes to an end the EU’s emissions trading system (ETS) will apply to shipping within the EU and all shipments to and from the EU, with carriers beginning to announce ETS-related surcharges from the first quarter of 2024.

SEA

The European Union’s surprise decision to end container shipping lines’ exemption from competition law next April and imposing carbon taxes on them from January, mean the lines already have a challenging 2024.
While co-operation between carriers is still possible, the potential downside of the EU’s action is that carriers will downsize service portfolios, frequency and connectivity, which would reduce, not increase, competition

– EU to end container shipping lines’ Consortia Block Exemption Regulation
– The Xeneta Global Index recorded its first gain in 13 months
– Carriers announcing ETS-related surcharges from 1st January
– Record year for new container ship deliveries

AIR

The overall Baltic Air Freight Index gained 11.0% in September, and was up 0.7% in the week to October 9, cutting its year-on-year decline to -29.2%, suggesting that air freight rates may have finally bottomed out and are now rising into a potential peak season and perhaps even beyond that.
The overall upward trend was fairly broad-based across Baltic indices on major global lanes, with the continuing rise of eCommerce business out of southern China particularly prevalent, which was reflected in the index for outbound Hong Kong routes, which gained 6.3% in the week prior to publication, to leave it down -20.2% y-o-y and Shanghai up 2.6%, cutting y-o-y decline to -22.4%.

– Overall Baltic Air Freight Index gained +11.0% in September
– Outbound Hong Kong routes up 7.3% and Shanghai 19% in the month
– 5.8% increase in jet fuel in September but situation volatile
– Air cargo capacity rose12.2% over August

OVERLAND

Overall capacity is returning to normal and there is significantly more volume available than in the pandemic years. Nevertheless, freight rates remain at a high level and this will not change for the time being given rising diesel prices, which are further threatened by conflation in the Middle East.
Influenced by the return of the HGV levy, fuel costs, higher business overheads and congestion charges, the traditional road freight price uptick seems to have come earlier this year and shippers need to be planning ahead to make sure their products aren’t left stranded in warehouses.

– Overall price per mile in largest jump since December 2022
– Market capacity is gradually returning to normal
– Operators seeking clarity on the 2040 deadline for zero-emissions HGVs
– CDS deadlines for exporters in November 2023 and April 2024

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