Golden Week blanked sailings growing
Carriers are frantically cutting October sailings from Asia to Europe, to try and get capacity below demand levels, in a final attempt to support rates, before the start of the traditional slack season, because their next opportunity to significantly raise prices will be in the build-up to the Chinese New Year, next February.
Multiple blank sailings have been announced from Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean around the Chinese Golden Week holiday in the first week of October, and through to the end of the month.
During Golden Week, percentage capacity reductions increased from a typical 11.1% to 17.0%, while in the three weeks following Golden Week, we are seeing an increase to 13.8%.
The latest customer advisory from THE Alliance said cancelled sailings, which include the FE2, FE3 and FE4 loops to North Europe in week 40, were a consequence of forecasted reductions in demand.
The aggressive blankings around the Golden Week holiday by all three alliances means it may be challenging to find space for exports from China to Europe next month, which is why we recommend that you share shipping forecasts as early as possible, so we can reserve the space you need.
The Loadstar reported that “it’s a bit of a ‘sledgehammer to crack a nut’ tactic. There’s no real science in this, other than if shippers start to scramble for space, and cargo gets rolled, then rates go up.”
Carriers were spurred to take action after their Asia-North Europe 1st August GRIs were eroded and average rate spot indices started recording week-on-week 10% declines.
Notwithstanding the impact of the mass blanking of sailings in October, there will also be the knock-on effect of limited export sailing from North Europe a month later.
“It looks like it could be a nightmare to find space out of Europe during November and December,” a forwarding contact told The Loadstar, which underlines again the importance of shipping forecasts.
Carriers will, of course, be looking to raise rates on backhaul trades as prices on North Europe-Asia are also touching new lows.
Meanwhile, carriers know that unless they ‘stop the rot’ now, and start to push rates back up, the next opportunity to significantly raise prices will be in the build-up to the Chinese New Year, next February.
Blank sailings mean that services may not be sailing in certain weeks, there may be changes to departure dates, arrival dates or transit times.
Our sea freight team works hard to keep our customers’ cargo moving, ensuring there is available capacity and offering alternative service options in the event of unforeseen blankings.
Providing us with regular forecasting, helps us to understand critical dates and intended volumes, so that we can secure the right amount of capacity to keep your supply chains running.